Eric T linked to an article earlier by Gabe Desjardins about the length of NHL playoff games and for some reason it made me wonder whether the score in regulation has any relationship to the length of time taken for a goal to be scored in overtime. So I grabbed all of the playoff goals … Continue reading »
What would you do to increase your employers revenue by £14-42m?
It’s unlikely anyone reading this will have missed what occurred in the dying moments of the Watford v Leicester match over the weekend. I am, however, going to post the video for posterity: In short, Leicester’s Anthony Knockaert dived to earn his team a penalty deep into injury time. He subsequently missed the penalty (and … Continue reading »
How many points are a Premiership goal worth?
We know that not all goals are created equal, the third goal of a 3-0 win seems like it’d be somewhat less important in the grand scheme of things that the third goal in a 3-2 win, but how can we go about putting a value on the worth of a single goal? Well finding … Continue reading »
An even quicker comparison of the Premiership and La Liga
Recently I’ve written two posts, comparing the distribution and variance of points in the Premiership and La Liga. This is a quick book end to those pieces – a comparison of how strongly goals and points are related in the two leagues. So firstly the Premiership, I’ve put up this plot in previous seasons but … Continue reading »
Before we lose our grasp on reality about Spurs’ play at the end of season
From Miguel Delaney As a quick aside the point of this post isn’t to do with sample sizes however, in fairness, Delaney does later acknowledge the small sample size and say he should have written ‘appears to be true’ in the initial message. I’d rather address the broader point as to the perception of Spurs … Continue reading »
Is there a larger spread of talent between Premiership teams’ ability to generate attacking events or prevent them?
Simple one this – firstly let’s take the last twelve Premiership seasons and look at the how the number of goals scored and allowed by a team are distributed. So the distribution of goals conceded somewhat resembles a normal distribution – with an equal mean and median (50). The distribution of goals scored is more … Continue reading »
Just how much of an outlier has Manchester United’s season been?
If you want an indication as to how good a team is then it’s instructive to look at how well it controls play in the attacking areas of the pitch. Fortunately we have a freely available stat that tracks exactly this – shots. The percentage of shots taken by a team over a given period … Continue reading »
After how many Premiership games does talent become more important than random variation?
This is the third part in a series I’ve written on the effect of random variation in the Premiership. The first two parts can be found here and here. To answer the question we need to determine the size of the each component. So firstly the random deviation. An average Premiership team will score 52.075 … Continue reading »
315 down, 65 to go. The Premiership so far
Same as after 261 games, with the important races at the top, and a data dump at the bottom. The European spots Last time round qualcompTSR projected the race would finish like this. The same four teams are still in contention although, as I said at the time, Everton were long shots to get in, … Continue reading »
The variance of points in the Premiership and La Liga
Last time I suggested that the best predictive model we could hope for in terms of the final Premiership standings would have a STDEV of ~9.25 points over the course of a season, because random variation can play a pretty big role over a small sample of games. However, as I’m not entirely sure this … Continue reading »
