Two simple plots to show that, the better your shot differential, the more points you’ll pick up. First for individual games since ’00-01, split into home and away because there’s a marked discrepancy:
The more that you outshoot an opponent, the more points you’ll pick up. The plot begins to plateau for the home team above +10 shots, partly because the majority of games are already being won, and then score effects playing a part.
Second the effect of total shot differential on points over a full season:
Same story, smoother line.