Brief rumination on PDO

James Yorke has a post here today about PDO. I have thoughts about several of the points raised but it’s simpler to write them here than just send a long string on twitter. It’ll be in a quote/response format. “…then you get a grey area where some people multiply the derived figure by 1000, some … Continue reading

A quick cautionary note on predictiveness and R-squared

Yesterday Sander IJtsma published a nice post looking at various metrics and how well they predict future performance (note 1). Using R-squared as a measure of how predictable of future performance is, Sander’s summary is such “The conclusion from these graphs is quite simple actually. Expected Goals Ratio forms an impressive improvement on raw shot … Continue reading

2014-15 Premiership Predictions

For predictions from previous seasons see the following links: 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14 For analysis of predictions in prior seasons see here: 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14 These predictions are based on Team Ratings – the methodology of which can be found here Finally for pre-season predictions of the points scored by the teams in the next four … Continue reading

An alternative to Scudamore’s ’39th game’

News appeared today that Richard Scudamore, the Chief Executive of the Premier League, is still in favour of the controversial ’39th game’ idea that was first suggested back in 2008. Furthermore, apparently the clubs are on board with the idea, too. In my opinion it seems like a no-brainer that meaningful (i.e., for points in … Continue reading

Methodology and validation of the Team Ratings

Contents: 1. Introduction 2. Data 3. Calculations and Results 3.1 Determining the coefficients 3.2 How does the Team Rating perform compared to TSR? 3.3 How does the Team Rating perform compared to xG? 3.4 How well does the Team Rating represent the table at the end of the season? 4. Discussion 4.1 How early in … Continue reading

Predictions for the ’14-15 Football League

Caveats: 1) These predictions are all based on TSR^2*PDO, which performed pretty well in the Premiership predictions last season. That said, I’ve only looked at one seasons worth of numbers in the Football League so I won’t guarantee it works as well. 2) I have no idea how well teams that are Promoted/Relegated to each … Continue reading