It seems fairly likely that Benitez will finally be hired by Madrid in the very near future. I’ve written previously that I think that Liverpool can probably count themselves unfortunate not to win a title whilst Benitez was at the helm, having the misfortune of being a good team at the same time that United were good and Chelsea … Continue reading
On Alan Pardew in ’14-15
Earlier in the season I posted a bunch of numbers on twitter regarding the change in fortunes at Newcastle and Crystal Palace around the time of Alan Pardew’s move. Sean Ingle’s piece including some of those numbers is here. Now that the season is over and the sample sizes are somewhat larger I’ve updated those numbers and … Continue reading
Brief rumination on PDO
James Yorke has a post here today about PDO. I have thoughts about several of the points raised but it’s simpler to write them here than just send a long string on twitter. It’ll be in a quote/response format. “…then you get a grey area where some people multiply the derived figure by 1000, some … Continue reading
Does progressing in the FA Cup affect a club’s Premier League form?
I’ve borrowed the title from this piece in the Guardian today, written by Alistair Tweedale of whoscored.com. The article looks at the number of points the teams that reach the FA Cup final score in the Premiership prior to, and after, reaching the 5th round of the FA Cup (judged as 22 games into the … Continue reading
A quick cautionary note on predictiveness and R-squared
Yesterday Sander IJtsma published a nice post looking at various metrics and how well they predict future performance (note 1). Using R-squared as a measure of how predictable of future performance is, Sander’s summary is such “The conclusion from these graphs is quite simple actually. Expected Goals Ratio forms an impressive improvement on raw shot … Continue reading
Title/European places/Bottom Three implications for Premiership matches 61-70
Firstly by combining the performance of teams in ’13-14 and ’14-15, here how the Team Rating currently projects the Premiership to finish graphically: And in table form: So, onto this weekend matches – what are the implications of each of the results on the teams playing the games? If you want to skip down to … Continue reading
Title/European places/Bottom Three implications for Premiership matches 51-60
Firstly by combining the performance of teams in ’13-14 and ’14-15, here how the Team Rating currently projects the Premiership to finish graphically: And in table form: So, onto this weekend matches – what are the implications of each of the results on the teams playing the games? If you want to skip down to … Continue reading
On confidence in model predictions and why it’s not necessarily a good thing
Earlier this year Phil Birnbaum wrote a great post here about how the spread of points in real life will always be larger than that predicted by a model. I could make the same argument but Phil does so with an eloquence and clarity that’s beyond me. I’d highly recommend just reading his post but … Continue reading
2014-15 Premiership Predictions
For predictions from previous seasons see the following links: 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14 For analysis of predictions in prior seasons see here: 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14 These predictions are based on Team Ratings – the methodology of which can be found here Finally for pre-season predictions of the points scored by the teams in the next four … Continue reading
An alternative to Scudamore’s ’39th game’
News appeared today that Richard Scudamore, the Chief Executive of the Premier League, is still in favour of the controversial ’39th game’ idea that was first suggested back in 2008. Furthermore, apparently the clubs are on board with the idea, too. In my opinion it seems like a no-brainer that meaningful (i.e., for points in … Continue reading
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