In a previous post I put
|A team that has a goal difference of 0 will pick up an average of 24-25 points over a period of 18 games and this is increased/reduced by ~0.6 points for every goal above/below 0 that a team is. So if Lincoln perform as expected then they should pick up about 21 points
The surprising form of Lincoln City – part 4
Below is a plot of points vs goal difference for the last ten years in the premiership. (I’ll later put up a similar plot for the last ten years in the football league but I’m willing it to bet it looks remarkably similar)
The correlation is very strong (not exactly a ground breaking finding – whether or not you earn points depends on your goal difference in a game).
So quickly for the example of a team having a goal difference of -6 over 18 games:
Exp points = (18 X (52.06/38)) + (-6 X 0.65) = 24.67 – 3.91 ~ 21
To put this into some context over a full season the table below shows the expected points for a team that finishes a season with a particular goal difference. I’ve split it into 38 and 46 game seasons to represent the premiership and lower leagues.
|Goal difference||Exp points (38 games)||Exp points (46 games)|