2010-11 premiership by goal difference

So as a follow up to Sundays post, how would we predict the premier league to look based on goal difference?

Team Games ± Exp points Points Delta
Man Utd 29 33 61.3 60 -1.3
Arsenal 28 30 57.9 57 -0.9
Chelsea 28 27 56.0 51 -5.0
Man City 29 20 52.8 53 +0.2
Tottenham 28 7 42.9 48 +5.1
Liverpool 29 3 41.7 42 +0.3
Newcastle 29 3 41.7 36 -5.7
Bolton 29 2 41.2 40 -1.2
Fulham 29 1 40.4 35 -5.4
Sunderland 29 -2 38.4 38 -0.4
Everton 28 0 38.4 36 -2.4
Stoke 29 -6 35.8 34 -1.8
Blackburn 29 -12 31.9 32 +0.1
Aston Villa 29 -13 31.3 33 +1.7
West Ham 29 -13 31.3 31 -0.3
Blackpool 29 -15 30.0 32 +2.0
West Brom 29 -15 30.0 31 +1.0
Wolves 29 -15 30.0 29 -1.0
Birmingham 27 -12 29.2 30 +0.8
Wigan 29 -23 24.7 27 +3.3

Delta is actual points minus expected points so a positive value shows a team has more points than expected whereas a negative value shows a team with less points than expected from goal difference alone.

It’s a pretty close match really, 14 of the 20 teams are within 2 points of the expected value. It’ll be interesting to see how it looks come the end of the season. If goal difference has any predictive value on future performance (something I’ll look at later) then I wouldn’t like to be a Wigan fan and I wouldn’t be betting on Spurs getting back into the top 4 any time soon.

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