Since 1995-96 (the last 15 seasons – the 38 game era) there have been 34 occasions when a player has scored 20+ goals. Below is the ‘average’ season from a player scoring 20+ goals
I’d expect goal scoring to be a fairly repeatable skill so there should be some repetition from year to year, yet a player there are only 10 occasions where a player has had back to back 20+ seasons. This is what we see from these 20+ goals players the seasons prior to and after a 20+ season.
|Year||Games||Goals||Goals per game|
|season of 20+||34.8||24.2||0.70|
I think there’s a couple of logical explanations highlighted here. Firstly players have to stay healthy to score 20+ goals, something that appears hard to do for goalscorers over a two or three year period. Secondly the goals per game ratio appears to shoot through the roof in a 20+ goal season, I’d suggest it’s likely down to an unsustainable shooting percentage and a change in the style of play (such as Darren Bent playing the lone striker last year and scoring 24, then alongside Gyan this year and being way off that pace).
Next I’ll take split the sample up between those who had back to back 20+ seasons and those who didn’t and see if there’s more to learn.