Distribution of shots on target in the premiership

Following on from the last post on the distribution of goals in the premier league I’m going to go on and look at shots on target.

First up is the table of stats.

Mean Standard deviation 95% max 95% min
Total 11.90 4.10 20.09 3.70
Home 6.81 3.29 13.40 0.23
Away 5.08 2.80 10.69 -0.52

The 95% min and max are the limits between which, statistically, 95% of results will form. Obviously a team can’t have a negative number of shots on target but the distribution is skewed because of the frequency of few shots on target being taken by away teams. Treat the negative number for away teams as zero.

Then the graphs to show how shots on target are distributed within games. Firstly total shots on target
Distribution of shots on target in premiership games

Then splitting the performance of home and away teams
Distribution of shots on target by home and away teams

And finally a plot showing the how often home and away teams took at least a defined number of shots on target*
Plot showing how often a home/away team takes at least a defined number of shots on target

Again there’s no surprise, home teams have more shots on target than their opponents. To round up the series the next post will look at total shots.

*The way to read this plot is as follows. If, for example, you want to know how often a home team takes 5 or more shots on target. Start by finding 5 on the x-axis and tracing straight up until you meet the line for the home team. Then trace from that spot directly left to the y-axis to find the frequency (the proportion of games where the home team takes 5 or more shots on target). Multiply the frequency (~0.75 in this case) by 100 and you have the probability as a percentage (~75%).

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