Watching this wasn’t very pleasant as a West Ham fan, we were played off the park and got a point courtesy of a post, Rob Green, some last ditch defending and a fair bit of luck (Jermain Defoe forgot whereabouts on the pitch the goal is).
According to bbc sport West Ham were outshot by a margin of 26-11, with shots on target favouring Spurs 11-5. So how would we have expected the Hammers to fare?
Firstly by total shots. There have been 11 games since 2000-01 where the home team has taken 25-27 shots AND the away team has taken 10-12 shots. The table below summarises what happened in those games.
|H shots||A shots||H goals||A goals||H points||A points|
That’s quite interesting, away teams actually hold their own in these games. Without going back and looking at individual games I can think of two possible explanations but beyond that I’m stumped. The first is score effects, ie the away team getting a lead early on and then holding on for the rest of the game. The second is that it’s a small sample size and the picture might change with more games.
To get a larger sample size I’ll look at the result in terms of shots on target. This gives 59 games, a more acceptable number. This time I’m looking at games where the home team take 13-15 shots on target AND the away team takes 4-6 shots on target.
|H SonT||A SonT||H goals||A goals||H points||A points|
There’s quite a clear picture being painted here. Team’s outshot to the extent West Ham were get outscored by an equally large margin. They have to get lucky to get a result. The teams outshot pick up at least a point in one third of games (7W, 13D in 59 games), but really this is because football is such a low scoring game.
Sometimes someone flipping a coin 5 times will get more heads than someone flipping a coin 14 times. Only rarely though. West Ham got away with one yesterday, no question about it.