Home advantage

The last set of posts have outlined what we could have already guessed – teams perform better at home than away. They score more goals, take more shots on target and total shots. Looking on a game by game basis how often is it that a home team out-performs the away team?

One way is to look at it graphically. Firstly by goals
Home team goals minus away team goals

Then by shots on target
Home team shots on target minus away team shots on target

And finally by total shots
Home team shots minus away team shots

And then there’s a table to sum it all up

Home team Equal Away team
Frequency of more goals 0.472 0.257 0.271
Frequency of more shots on target 0.610 0.086 0.304
Frequency of more shots 0.642 0.052 0.306

In summary, home advantage is enormous. 63% of all wins are for the home side and a major factor is that the home team is twice as likely as its opponent to have more shots.

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