The last set of posts have outlined what we could have already guessed – teams perform better at home than away. They score more goals, take more shots on target and total shots. Looking on a game by game basis how often is it that a home team out-performs the away team?
One way is to look at it graphically. Firstly by goals
Then by shots on target
And finally by total shots
And then there’s a table to sum it all up
|Home team||Equal||Away team|
|Frequency of more goals||0.472||0.257||0.271|
|Frequency of more shots on target||0.610||0.086||0.304|
|Frequency of more shots||0.642||0.052||0.306|
In summary, home advantage is enormous. 63% of all wins are for the home side and a major factor is that the home team is twice as likely as its opponent to have more shots.