Statistics in ice hockey tend to have names with no explanation as to their meaning. Developed by the online community the tradition is to name a stat after the person that developed them, hence PDO. That link and this one outline it’s use in hockey, and I’m interested in whether it applies to football as well.
For football PDO is calculated as follows:
PDO = 10 X (Shooting percentage + Save percentage)
And has an average number across the league of 1000.
One of the characteristics of PDO in hockey is that it regresses heavily towards the mean, even over relatively few games, almost regardless of how good a team is. Because it shows such strong regression to the mean it has a large component of luck. In the NHL there are certainly cases where a team misses the playoffs because of bad luck (indicated by a poor PDO) whereas others get in by virtue of good luck (a high PDO).
I’m interested in whether it demonstrates the same behaviour in football (ie is luck based) or whether teams have an influence on their PDO. The following post will look at PDO in the same way I’ve looked at shooting and save percentage to determine whether better teams have better PDO values.