Are more games won at the end of the season?

With five games to go in the premiership season most teams have a good idea of where they will finish in the table. For some of them wins are becoming important for them to reach certain goals. In particular I’m thinking of Man City and Spurs who are both chasing fourth place and the bottom five teams aiming to avoid relegation. There are teams in a similar position every year so are there actually a larger proportion of games that are won as opposed to drawn at the end of the season?

That lines pretty bumpy so I’ve plotted the nine game moving average below (to get a sample of ~1000 games for each data point)

So there’s a small increase (from ~74-75%) over the whole season but the change is marginal at best. I’d expected the increase to be more pronounced (especially in game 38 when teams are really desperate and a loss and a draw can be equally useless) but there it is. How about for the attacking metrics:

Again there’s not much difference. There’s a slight increase in game 38 but not as much as I’d expected to be honest. Overall the premiership football you see in August is very similar to what you see in May.


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