A primer: Quality of competition (QualComp)

This is a pretty simple concept but I’ll be referring to it a few times so it’s worth a post.

Quality of competition (QualComp) is used to give an indication of the strength of a teams opponents. I’ve already shown that a teams shots on target ratio (SOTR) is the most repeatable (and therefore reliable) measure of a teams ability so I’m going to use it as the basis of QualComp. I’m going to start with the simplest possible way I can think of to calculate it although it’ll probably be developed over time.

As an example I’ll use Blackpool’s remaining premiership opponents

Stoke City .438
Tottenham Hotspur .553
Bolton Wanderers .503
Manchester United .621

So Blackpool’s quality of competition is calculated as follows:

QualComp = (.438+.553+.503+.621)/4 = .529

And that’s it. The first thing to note is that it is above league average (of .500) and by comparing it to Blackpool’s SOTR (.396) we can see that they’ll be playing teams that are substantially better than they are.


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