Predicting the 10-11 Premiership standings

Yer yer I’m aware the season has finished. But by using what I’ve learnt thus far how would I have predicted the premiership table to look at the start of the season? These are the actual and expected numbers:

Team Pos Points ± Exp pos Exp points Exp ±
Mancheter United 1 80 +41 3 70 +30
Chelsea 2 71 +36 1 80 +42
Manchester City 3 71 +27 7 57 +10
Arsenal 4 68 +29 2 72 +28
Tottenham Hotspur 5 62 +9 5 62 +16
Liverpool 6 58 +15 4 67 +21
Everton 7 54 +6 6 60 +11
Fulham 8 49 +6 9 49 -5
Aston Villa 9 48 -11 15 44 -8
Sunderland 10 47 -11 12 45 -9
West Bromwich Albion 11 47 -15 13 45 -11
Newcastle United 12 46 -1 18 38 -17
Stoke City 13 46 -2 20 34 -22
Bolton Wanderers 14 46 -4 14 45 -13
Blackburn Rovers 15 43 -13 9 50 -3
Wigan Athletic 16 42 -21 8 52 -8
Wolverhampton Wanderers 17 40 -20 16 42 -16
Birmingham City 18 39 -21 17 41 -14
Blackpool 19 39 -23 19 38 -21
West Ham United 20 33 -27 11 47 -8

So there’s a mixed bag. On the plus side I had the top seven correct and roughly in the right order. I also had the teams that finished 17th, 18th and 19th projected to finish 16th, 17th & 19th respectively. In all I would have got eight of the point totals correct to within two points.

On the other hand I’d also have been wildly wrong for some of the others. In particular Manchester City, Stoke, West Ham and Wigan all stand out as poor projections.

I think I can explain a couple of these. This is a very basic model and it doesn’t account for transfers so it is no surprise to see that it underestimated Manchester City and it’s £150m summer upgrade.

I also think there’s an element of scorer bias at the DW stadium as Wigan (as I’ve mentioned previously) always seem to have a lower points total than their SOTR suggests they deserve and that would skew this prediction (I’ll be looking at scorer bias in the near future).

To me West Ham were a complete surprise. I think in the end they were worse than expected and this was compounded by a pretty terrible PDO. If they had the same squad next season I’d expect them to do very well in the championship but obviously that won’t be the case.

Finally there is Stoke. Looking at how they’ve performed the last two seasons it appears possible that their style of play allows them to obtain good results whilst producing few shots on target (the opposite may also be true for Arsenal) but I only have two seasons of data for them so it is equally likely they have simply been lucky.

So there is the table the stats I have would have projected at the beginning of the season. Later in the summer I’ll put out the numbers for the 11-12 season and see how that looks.

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