How much is a league one goal worth in the championship?

A while ago I had a look at how teams promoted to and relegated from the premiership perform in the following season to compare the strength of the premiership to the championship. Now I’m going to follow the same methodology but for teams promoted to and relegated from the championship.

This time the sample size is comfortably above 5000 games so I’d expect pretty consistent results.

First I’ll look at teams that were relegated from the championship in ‘year 1’ and consequently spent ‘year 2’ in league one:

Year League Games Goals scored Goals per game
‘Year 1’ Championship 1380 1406 1.019
‘Year 2’ League one 1380 1951 1.414

So to calculate how much a goal scored in the league one is worth in the championship:

Goals for per game (championship)/Goals for per game (league one) = 1.019/1.414 = 0.721

How about the other way around, teams that are promoted in ‘year 1’ and spend ‘year 2’ playing in the championship?

Year League Games Goals scored Goals per game
‘Year 1’ League one 1380 2236 1.620
‘Year 2’ Championship 1380 1691 1.225

Goals for per game (championship)/Goals for per game (league one) = 1.225/1.620 = 0.756

The two ratios match pretty well, as found in the previous post, and by taking the average I’m going to estimate that a goal in league one is worth ~0.738 goals in the championship. By following the same process for goals conceded and I got values of 0.799 and 0.711 for relegation and promotion which have a similar average as goals for (of ~0.755)although once more the spread of the two values is wider than for goals for.

Next time I visit this topic I’ll have a similar look at the next rung of the ladder, the teams promoted to and relegated from league one.

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