Predicting the Premiership, 2011-12 edition

In an improvement over last season I’m only a quarter of a season late with this.

Team Exp pos Exp points Exp ±
Arsenal 1 72 +26
Chelsea 2 68 +25
Manchester United 3 68 +23
Tottenham Hotspur 4 61 +12
Liverpool 5 60 +11
Manchester City 6 59 +12
Everton 7 58 +8
West Bromwich Albion 8 56 +2
Fulham 9 54 +3
Newcastle United 10 54 +2
Wigan Athletic 11 53 -3
Bolton Wanderers 12 52 -1
Sunderland 13 48 -7
Aston Villa 14 47 -8
Stoke City 15 45 -8
Swansea City 16 43 -12
Wolverhampton Wanderers 17 41 -16
Norwich City 18 38 -17
Queens Park Rangers 19 37 -16
Blackburn Rovers 20 35 -21

So the main discrepancy here is obviously Manchester City. It’s worth mentioning once more that this is a basic model that relies solely on last seasons performance.

Once again this model has predicted that Wigan and Arsenal will be much higher than they are at this point. I’m at a bit of a loss to explain this. They’re both teams that play passing football and so I’d expect that if any teams in the league were to utilise the benefit from whatever skill lies in shooting percentage it would be those playing passing football that style of football but obviously this isn’t the case.

And to this point Norwich are doing pretty well although I don’t expect them to be in the top half of the table come the end of the season.

I may revisit this at the end of the season to see how it pans out at the end of the season.

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