The title race – final five

United have a five point advantage with five games to go. They’ve also been markedly better the last three weeks. The distribution of expected points looks as follows:

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In terms of chances of winning the league:

Expected points Chance of winning the title
Man United ~88 ~77%
Man City ~85 ~23%

Quite a big shift from last time with United not only favourites but also safely out of coin flip territory.

For fun this is how the Manchester derby would affect things:

Result Chance United win title Chance City win title
United win ~94% ~6%
Draw ~80% ~20%
City win ~54% ~46%

So there. A City win and we’re safely back in coin flip territory, other than that United are heavy favourites.

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