United have a five point advantage with five games to go. They’ve also been markedly better the last three weeks. The distribution of expected points looks as follows:
In terms of chances of winning the league:
|Expected points||Chance of winning the title|
Quite a big shift from last time with United not only favourites but also safely out of coin flip territory.
For fun this is how the Manchester derby would affect things:
|Result||Chance United win title||Chance City win title|
So there. A City win and we’re safely back in coin flip territory, other than that United are heavy favourites.