How will the derby result affect the title race? I’ll take a look using the same methodology as my previous three posts. The table below gives the percentage chance of each team scoring x points in their final two games (i.e. after the derby)
So to translate into the odds of winning the title:
|Derby result||Chance United win title||Chance City win title|
Just one caveat – I’m assuming (pretty safely I believe) that City will win the league if points are tied due to goal difference. If you don’t agree then take a couple of percent off City’s chances.
*I was going to put some plots in here but they’re really ugly. A normal distribution doesn’t give a good model as there’s no way to account for a 3/1/0 points system and thus I’ll still have odds of a team scoring 5 points