The title race – derby edition

How will the derby result affect the title race? I’ll take a look using the same methodology as my previous three posts. The table below gives the percentage chance of each team scoring x points in their final two games (i.e. after the derby)

United Points City
6% 0 2%
13% 1 5%
6% 2 5%
27% 3 16%
25% 4 26%
N/A 5 N/A
23% 6 45%

So to translate into the odds of winning the title:

Derby result Chance United win title Chance City win title
United win ~97% ~3%
Draw ~72% ~28%
City win ~24% ~76%

Just one caveat – I’m assuming (pretty safely I believe) that City will win the league if points are tied due to goal difference. If you don’t agree then take a couple of percent off City’s chances.

*I was going to put some plots in here but they’re really ugly. A normal distribution doesn’t give a good model as there’s no way to account for a 3/1/0 points system and thus I’ll still have odds of a team scoring 5 points


One thought on “The title race – derby edition

  1. Pingback: Q&A: Do you think Chelsea Fc are out of the title race? | Chelsea Football Fans

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