The Championship by points, shots and luck

Seeing as the playoff final is today (yes then West Ham) this is about the most appropriate time to throw this up. I’ll have the corresponding table for the Premiership in the next couple of days

The table is sorted by total shots ratio, with Blackpool, Reading, Southampton and West Ham bolded

Photobucket

An explanation of total shots ratio can be found here and here, for PDO see here and here.

Nice to see Southampton at the top, the best team went up.

Reading are the poster boys of what can happen if you score with 30% of the shots you put on net. Only four teams in the past 12 years have been promoted having taken less than 50% of shots in their championship matches.

The playoff finalists are significantly far down the table. West Ham are rightly favourites but they should be glad that they’re facing Blackpool rather than Birmingham.

If you’re looking to back a team for promotion next year you’ll get great odds on Forest, and Middlesbrough will likely be under-rated. Betting against Bristol City going down looks quite promising too.

Anything I’ve missed?

Advertisements

2 thoughts on “The Championship by points, shots and luck

  1. Great stuff James, wish I’d seen this at the time. Reading and Southampton were pretty much the same price across the board for relegation. Who are the other three teams to go up with a sub 50% TSR?

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s