I’m forever blowing bubbles: The Championship

So I’ve put these up for the Premiership (link) and La Liga (link). This time lets take a look at the Championship:


The plot reads the same as before:
x-axis: PDO. Further right = more luck
y-axis: TSR. Higher = better team
Bubble size: Points. More points = bigger bubble
Bubble shade: Goal difference. Green = positive, red = negative. Lighter shade = further from 0

An explanation of total shots ratio can be found here and here, for PDO see here and here.

In short:
Southampton and Birmingham were very good
Birmingham/Middlesbrough/Hull/Burnley//Leicester should be there or there abouts in terms of promotion/the playoffs next season
Forest were extraordinarily unlucky, Ipswich weren’t much better off
Reading were inexplicably promoted as champions
Portsmouth fans can’t buy a break

One cool thing about comparing these between the different leagues though is that, whilst the spread of team talent is appreciably smaller in the championship than in the premiership (stdev of 0.04 vs 0.08) the spread of PDO in the two leagues is essentially the same (57 vs 50 in the premiership). What this suggests is that the amount of luck present is independent of the similarities between the teams. To me at least that seems to make sense.


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