Previews: 19th, West Ham, 39 points

Life is going to get in the way of these previews. Summer in BC, it turns out, is pretty immense and I’d rather be outside than in. I’ll keep the previews going but it’ll soon become apparent that I’m not investing a lot of time. Apart from this one. I wrote it last week when it was raining. Plus if I explain this one properly I can lazily refer you here every time in the future.

It’s time to doom a second of the newly promoted clubs, my team in fact. First up let’s use a bubble plot to see how they’ve performed in the past three seasons:

An explanation of total shots ratio can be found here and here, for PDO see here and here.

If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).

This is one of the cases where TSR and points actually tracked one another pretty well. The ’10-11 version of the Hammers was worse than that seen in ’09-10 and they were relegated as a result. Last year they ranked 9th in the Championship in terms of TSR, got more luck than a few of the teams around them and were promoted on the back of that combination.

I’ve modified this next table a little form the preview I had of Southampton. This time I’m including the two other ‘dumb’ models, using TSR and STR (shots on target ratio) from last season to predict next season’s performance. The max and min values are derived from the performance of the comparable teams and, as with the Southampton post, the positions associated with them assume that each other team in the league performs exactly as expected.

Basically all of the models are in agreements for West Ham. Again, this one seems about right to me, nearly all promoted clubs need a bit of luck to avoid relegation and West Ham are firmly in that boat. You’ll hear this a lot throughout the previews but a couple of lucky goals could make a massive difference for some of the teams around the bottom half of the table.

And finally here’s a reminder of how the predicted table stands to this juncture, based on the ‘comparable’s’ model.

’03-04 West Brom (86 points in year ‘0’, 34 points in year ‘1’), ’09-10 Blackpool (70, 39), ’01-02 Birmingham (76, 48), ’10-11 QPR (88, 37), ’08-09 Wolves (90, 38), ’02-03 Portsmouth (98, 45), ’10-11 Norwich (84,47), ’05-06 Reading (106, 55), ’02-03 Leicester (92, 33), ’06-07 Derby (84, 11)


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