Previews: 18th, Reading, 39 points

This is why these previews are going to be light on context. If you’re British it’s probably sensible to avert your eyes:

Today, the last of the promoted clubs. First up let’s use a bubble plot to see how they’ve performed in the past three seasons:

An explanation of total shots ratio can be found here and here, for PDO see here and here.

If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).

Reading have basically been the same team for each of the past three seasons and were promoted last time around on the back of a huge chunk of luck. They ranked 16th in the championship in terms of TSR and were so bad that I can only justify using five teams to form their group of comparably performing teams.

The table below includes the projections based on those comparable teams (as well as the max and min points expected from their performance) as well as their expected performance based on their total shots ratio (TSR) and shots on target ratio (STR) from last season.

Once more the models agree, yet another of the promoted teams is going to struggle to stay up.

And finally here’s a reminder of how the predicted table stands to this juncture, based on the ‘comparable’s’ model.

The comparable’s for Reading are: ’03-04 Crystal Palace (73 points in year ‘0’, 33 points in year ‘1’), ’03-04 Norwich (94, 33), ’08-09 Birmingham (83, 50), ’06-07 Birmingham (86, 35), ’07-08 Stoke (79, 45)

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