Previews: 17th, Stoke, 40 points

And so the projections roll on to the teams that the ‘comparable’s’ model deems are going to be safe this year. Here’s the bubble plot for Stoke’s performance over the past three seasons:

An explanation of total shots ratio can be found here and here, for PDO see here and here.

If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).

This one is basically showing that Stoke have been a pretty terrible team in terms of attacking possession for each of the past three seasons. Let’s look at this another way. Below is a plot of total shots ratio vs points scored over the past twelve seasons. The red dots represent the teams that have been relegated and the black dots represent each season Stoke has been in the Premiership (the centre dot actually represents two seasons that overlap in terms of tsr/points)

In three of the past four seasons Stoke have taken 41% or less of the shots in their games. Of the other 22 teams to do this since the ’00-01 season, 15 were relegated. Basically it’s tough to achieve much whilst seeing so little of the ball.

So onto the projections. The table below includes the projections based on those comparable teams (as well as the max and min points expected from their performance) as well as their expected performance based on their total shots ratio (TSR) and shots on target ratio (STR) from last season.

The models agree pretty well again…

Finally here’s a reminder of how the predicted table stands to this juncture, based on the ‘comparable’s’ model.

The comparable’s for Stoke are: ’03-04 Charlton (53 points in year ‘0’, 46 points in year ‘1’), ’06-07 Reading (55, 36), ’10-11 Blackburn (43, 31), ’05-06 West Ham (55, 41), ’02-03 Charlton (49, 53), ’04-05 West Brom (34, 30), ’09-10 Stoke (47, 46), ’00-01 Leicester (48, 28), ’09-10 Birmingham (50, 39), ’04-05 Charlton (46, 47)

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