Another comparison of shots, goals, and luck

I just want to follow up the earlier post about total shots ratio (link) by looking at the comparison between the second graph there (reproduced below) and what we see if we replace TSR with a) shots on target ratio, b) goals, c) PDO, d) shooting percentage and e) save percentage

As a quick reminder this is the plot I’m referring to. As for the colours: black = league champions, blue = champions league place, red = relegation:

The pattern here is clear: teams that control more of the ball in the attacking area’s of the field are more likely to end up in the champions league, and less likely to be relegated, than those that don’t.

a) shots on target ratio

That looks pretty similar to the plot for total shots. This isn’t too surprising – every time I’ve looked at the pair of them over large samples they’ve behaved roughly the same.

b) goals

The correlation here shouldn’t surprise anyone – points are obviously a lot more driven by goals than shots. It doesn’t mean goals are better predictive indicators though. In reality shots are much better.

c) PDO

A mess. I think there’s a decent body of evidence on this site alone, let alone the attention it’s starting to get elsewhere, to show that PDO is a wonderful meaningless stat. It’s probably my favourite of the lot.

d) Shooting percentage (sh%)

About as much of a mess as PDO

e) Save percentage (sv%)

Same comment as for sh%. Arsenal won the league in 01-02 with the second worst sv% I have on record…

2 thoughts on “Another comparison of shots, goals, and luck

  1. Pingback: 11tegen11 | Predicting the final Eredivisie league table

  2. Hi,
    sorry, but for me c) and d) are not a total mess. Yes c) and d) do not show that clear results like a) and b) but I think that is a result of the calculation and I see a trend from down left to up right.
    PDO is not only about my attacking stats but also about defence. And everybody knows that teams play in different styles. One team is good in avoiding the opponent to take shots, it will have a low saving percentage. Other teams with a not very good defence but a good goalie will have better stats. But both teams may concede the same number of goals. Different approach, different stats, same results.

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