On we roll to the first of the clubs promoted in ’10-11…
If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).
Despite being promoted thanks to a decent chunk of luck QPR actually held their own pretty well last season, ranking 11th in the Premiership by TSR (link). To my eye that suggests they belong solidly amongst the group of teams that could get into Europe with some good luck, and be relegated with some bad luck. Let’s see what the projections think.
The table below includes the projections based on those comparable teams (as well as the max and min points expected from their performance) as well as their expected performance based on their total shots ratio (TSR) and shots on target ratio (STR) from last season.
For the first time there’s a significant discrepancy between the shot metrics and the comparable’s model, with shots and shots on target both predicting they will be up to four points, and six positions, better off than the comparable’s model suggests. As such QPR stand as the first test as to the differences between the models.
Finally here’s a reminder of how the predicted table stands to this juncture, based on the ‘comparable’s’ model.
The comparable’s for Queens Park Rangers are: ’10-11 Stoke (46 points in year ‘0’, 45 points in year ‘1’), ’03-04 Everton (39, 61), ’03-04 Portsmouth (45, 39), ’01-02 West Ham (53, 42), ’02-03 Fulham (48, 52), ’08-09 Fulham (53, 46), ’03-04 Southampton (47, 32), ’09-10 West Ham (35, 33), ’07-08 Bolton (37, 41)