And we hit mid-table with the first of the clubs from the North-East…
If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).
Sunderland have pretty much reached the state where they’re perpetually safe without really moving forwards. Last season they ranked 16th in the Premiership in terms of TSR (link) and having yet to invest a significant sum in the squad to this date they could be in for a struggle this season.
The table below includes the projections based on those comparable teams (as well as the max and min points expected from their performance) as well as their expected performance based on their total shots ratio (TSR) and shots on target ratio (STR) from last season.
There’s a pretty good agreement here – if these models pan out then Sunderland could well be one of the struggling teams this season.
Finally here’s a reminder of how the predicted table stands to this juncture, based on the ‘comparable’s’ model.
The comparable’s for Sunderland are: ’06-07 Fulham (39 points in year ‘0’, 65 points in year ‘1’), ’06-07 Everton (58, 65), ’04-05 Everton (61, 50), ’07-08 Manchester City (55, 50), ’08-09 West Ham (51, 35), ’08-09 Hull (35, 30), ’09-10 Sunderland (44, 47), 08-09 Bolton (41, 39)