Previews: 13th, West Brom, 45 points

To the West Midlands…

An explanation of total shots ratio can be found here and here, for PDO see here and here.

If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).

I’ve said it a few times but Roberto Di Matteo was ridiculously unlucky to be fired as West Brom’s boss during the ’10-11 season. In terms teams newly promoted to the Premiership they were certainly one of the better ones. Last season they ranked 12th in the Premiership in terms of TSR (link).

The table below includes the projections based on those comparable teams (as well as the max and min points expected from their performance) as well as their expected performance based on their total shots ratio (TSR) and shots on target ratio (STR) from last season.

Another team with pretty good agreement across the models…

Here’s a reminder of how the predicted table stands to this juncture, based on the ‘comparable’s’ model.

The comparable’s for West Brom are: ’03-04 Everton (39 points in year ‘0’, 61 points in year ‘1’), ’03-04 Portsmouth (45, 39), ’01-02 West Ham (53, 42), ’02-03 Fulham (48, 52), ’08-09 Fulham (53, 46), ’03-04 Southampton (47, 32), ’09-10 West Ham (35, 33), ’07-08 Bolton (37, 41), ’06-07 Blackburn (52, 58)

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