Previews, 14th, Fulham, 45 points


An explanation of total shots ratio can be found here and here, for PDO see here and here.

If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).

I don’t think there’s going to be another bubble plot that defines mid-table in such a spectacular fashion. They’ve taken an average amount of shots, scored their fair share of goals and finished 8th, 9th and 12th. Last season they ranked 10th in the Premiership in terms of TSR (link) and it’s a fair bet that they’ll be around there again next season.

The table below includes the projections based on those comparable teams (as well as the max and min points expected from their performance) as well as their expected performance based on their total shots ratio (TSR) and shots on target ratio (STR) from last season.

Positionally there’s some discrepancy but the models still agree pretty well in terms of points. If there’s one thing I’m starting to notice about the comparable’s model it’s that the spread in points is wider across the league than for either of the shots models, which tend to band everyone between roughly 40 and 70 points.

Finally here’s a reminder of how the predicted table stands to this juncture, based on the ‘comparable’s’ model.

The comparable’s for Fulham are: ’07-08 Sunderland (39 points in year ‘0’, 36 points in year ‘1’), ’08-09 Portsmouth (41, 28), ’08-09 Aston Villa (62, 64), ’10-11 Stoke (46, 45), ’03-04 Everton (39, 61), ’03-04 Portsmouth (45, 39), ’01-02 West Ham (53, 42), 02-03 Fulham (48, 52), ’08-09 Fulham (53, 46), ’03-04 Southampton (47, 32)


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