If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).
The performance of Aston Villa last season was worrying to their fans as it well should have been. They were poor at controlling the ball and, as a result, ranked 14th in the Premiership in terms of TSR (link). Then again they were no better in either of the two prior seasons, with ’09-10 being a rather lucky one. That suggests that the shots metrics aren’t going to shine too bright a light on Aston Villa’s projected performance next season but what about the comparable’s model?
The table below includes the projections based on those comparable teams (as well as the max and min points expected from their performance) as well as their expected performance based on their total shots ratio (TSR) and shots on target ratio (STR) from last season.
For the first time the comparable’s model is more optimistic than shots as to the performance of a team. Along with QPR they become the second team that may differentiate between these models.
Finally here’s a reminder of how the predicted table stands to this juncture, based on the ‘comparable’s’ model.
The comparable’s for Aston Villa are: ’08-09 Sunderland (36 points in year ‘0’, 44 points in year ‘1’), ’04-05 Fulham (44, 48), ’00-01 Charlton (52, 44), ’06-07 Newcastle (43, 43), ’02-03 Birmingham (48, 50), ’07-08 Fulham (36, 53), ’05-06 Fulham (48, 39), ’03-04 Birmingham (50, 45), ’05-06 Everton (50, 58), ’06-07 Fulham (39,36)