Previews, 10th, Norwich City, 46 points

And into the top half we go

An explanation of total shots ratio can be found here and here, for PDO see here and here.

If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).

I like that plot, it’s a pretty nice demonstration of the improvement in competition between League one and the Premiership, despite the fact that the squad improved over that time. Last season they were very much a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of TSR, ranking 13th in the Premiership by that measure (link). With no great changes in personnel there isn’t a lot of reason to believe they’ll perform much differently next season.

The table below includes the projections based on those comparable teams (as well as the max and min points expected from their performance) as well as their expected performance based on their total shots ratio (TSR) and shots on target ratio (STR) from last season.

Once more the model agree to within a win and, though I’d be expect to see them at the lower end of the ‘max’-‘min’ range, it wouldn’t be that much of a shock. For example Newcastle showed it was possible last season.

Finally here’s a reminder of how the predicted table stands to this juncture, based on the ‘comparable’s’ model.

The comparable’s for Norwich are: ’06-07 Blackburn (52 points in year ‘0’, 58 points in year ‘1’), ’10-11 Aston Villa (48, 38), ’05-06 Newcastle (58, 43), ’09-10 Fulham (46, 49), ’04-05 Aston Villa (47, 42), ’01-02 Bolton (40, 44), ’09-10 Bolton (39, 46), ’09-10 Aston Villa (64, 48), ’02-03 Middlesbrough (49, 48)


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