I think the top seven teams are pretty predictable really. Apart from who’s projected to come first and who’s projected to come 7th there’ll be some surprises though
If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).
For their budget Everton are simply a terrific team and deserve a lot of credit for putting out a sustained level of high performance every season. They do a great job of controlling the ball in the attacking areas of the pitch and last season ranked 7th in the Premiership in terms of TSR (link), not far behind a couple of the top six and comfortably ahead of the rest of the pack. I think they’re a pretty safe bet to fall in the range from 6th – 9th. How about the models?
The table below includes the projections based on those comparable teams (as well as the max and min points expected from their performance) as well as their expected performance based on their total shots ratio (TSR) and shots on target ratio (STR) from last season.
There’s consistency here although the shots models are slightly more optimistic than the comparable’s one. Personally I think they’re all in the right range.
Finally here’s a reminder of how the predicted table stands to this juncture, based on the ‘comparable’s’ model.
The comparable’s for Everton are: ’04-05 Tottenham (52 points in year ‘0’, 65 points in year ‘1’), ’07-08 Tottenham (46, 51), ’10-11 Tottenham (62, 69), ’02-03 Manchester City (51, 41), ’10-11 Liverpool (58, 52), ’10-11 Everton (54, 56), ’06-07 Tottenham (60, 46), ’06-07 Wigan (38, 40), ’10-11 West Brom (47, 47), ’01-02 Leeds (66, 47)