Previews, 8th, Swansea, 50 points

And so onto the final team that was promoted last season

An explanation of total shots ratio can be found here and here, for PDO see here and here.

If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).

I’ve mentioned before, based on the proportion of attacking possession they enjoy, that I think Swansea are due to dip this season (link) but their comparable’s are suggesting this may not be so. They ranked only 15th in the league in terms of TSR last time around (link) and I’d suggest that they’re going to struggle this time, especially if they were to lose a couple of key players prior to the transfer deadline.

The table below includes the projections based on those comparable teams (as well as the max and min points expected from their performance) as well as their expected performance based on their total shots ratio (TSR) and shots on target ratio (STR) from last season.

So there’s a pretty significant disagreement here. The shot models have Swansea really struggling whereas the comparable’s model has them pretty safe. Only time will tell.

Finally here’s a reminder of how the predicted table stands to this juncture, based on the ‘comparable’s’ model.

The comparable’s for Swansea are: ’02-03 Birmingham (48 points in year ‘0’, 50 points in year ‘1’), ’07-08 Fulham (36, 53), ’05-06 Fulham (48, 39), ’03-04 Birmingham (50, 45), ’05-06 Everton (50, 58), ’06-07 Fulham (39, 36), ’06-07 Everton (58, 65), ’04-05 Everton (61, 50)

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3 thoughts on “Previews, 8th, Swansea, 50 points

  1. Swansea are a very difficult prediction to make. Swansea’s home form and especially there defensive record and high number of clean sheets considering their inability to prevent shots on target against are the things that worry me. The home form may regress and if it does there could be problems.

    This is an excellent series James, keep it up!

    • Thanks, that’s much appreciated.

      Yer I think the shots are more likely to be right on this one. I’m tempted to put some money on Brendan Rogers winning the LMA. He’s left a club that overachieved compared to pre-season expectations and is going to one that is almost guaranteed to be better than last season. Any improvement by Liverpool will be credited solely to him, as will any drop-off in Swansea’s performance,

  2. I think you can expect Swansea to be a lot more open this season under Laudrup. They will score more goals but also concede more. What will happen to their TSR I’ve no idea, but their possession numbers will fall away. De Guzman and Michu are very direct players. I think Danny Graham will enjoy himself this season.

    Some ‘judges’ are tipping Swansea for the drop but I think they’ll be just fine in lower mid-table.

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