And so onto the final team that was promoted last season
If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).
I’ve mentioned before, based on the proportion of attacking possession they enjoy, that I think Swansea are due to dip this season (link) but their comparable’s are suggesting this may not be so. They ranked only 15th in the league in terms of TSR last time around (link) and I’d suggest that they’re going to struggle this time, especially if they were to lose a couple of key players prior to the transfer deadline.
The table below includes the projections based on those comparable teams (as well as the max and min points expected from their performance) as well as their expected performance based on their total shots ratio (TSR) and shots on target ratio (STR) from last season.
So there’s a pretty significant disagreement here. The shot models have Swansea really struggling whereas the comparable’s model has them pretty safe. Only time will tell.
Finally here’s a reminder of how the predicted table stands to this juncture, based on the ‘comparable’s’ model.
The comparable’s for Swansea are: ’02-03 Birmingham (48 points in year ‘0’, 50 points in year ‘1’), ’07-08 Fulham (36, 53), ’05-06 Fulham (48, 39), ’03-04 Birmingham (50, 45), ’05-06 Everton (50, 58), ’06-07 Fulham (39, 36), ’06-07 Everton (58, 65), ’04-05 Everton (61, 50)