Finally I have the champions pegged to claim another title.
If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).
City took an astronomical leap forward last season and, by every measure I have, were the class of the league. They dominated in terms of TSR, (link), generated far more shots than anyone else and their goal difference reflected this. They weren’t the best team we’ve seen in the Premiership but they were damn useful.
The table below includes the projections based on those comparable teams (as well as the max and min points expected from their performance) as well as their expected performance based on their total shots ratio (TSR) and shots on target ratio (STR) from last season.
Champions, champions and champions, that seems quite conclusive. There’s not a lot more to say here, they haven’t anyone key but neither have they lost anyone, this will remain a very good team. In my opinion it’s going to take a hell of a lot of luck for any other team to win the league. So here’s how the comparable’s model predicts the final Premiership table to look like:
The comparable’s for City are: ’07-08 Liverpool (76 points in year ‘0’, 86 points in year ‘1’), ’04-05 Manchester United (77, 83), ’01-02 Arsenal (87, 78), ’05-06 Chelsea (87, 78), ’04-05 Chelsea (95, 91), ’08-09 Chelsea (83, 86), ’10-11 Arsenal (68, 70), ’09-10 Arsenal (75, 68), ’06-07 Chelsea (83, 85), ’06-07 Manchester United (89, 87)