Probably the last ‘surprise’ although probably not too shocking.
If you haven’t seen these bubble plots before I explained the concept here but basically, higher = better team, further right = more luck, bigger bubble = more points, brighter bubble = more extreme goal difference (green = +ve, red = -ve).
Spurs have been a good team for each of the past three seasons, although last season looks to have been the best of the lot. They finished an impressive fourth in terms of TSR (link) and are now a bona-fide member of the top six.
The table below includes the projections based on those comparable teams (as well as the max and min points expected from their performance) as well as their expected performance based on their total shots ratio (TSR) and shots on target ratio (STR) from last season.
Positionally the three methods compliment each other pretty well but, as I’ve previously mentioned, the comparable’s model is designed to give a wider spread of points across the league, whereas the shots models will give a tighter grouping. Finally the league table, based on the comparable’s model:
The comparable’s for Spurs are: ’02-03 Manchester United (83 points in year ‘0’, 75 points in year ‘1’), ’02-03 Liverpool (64, 60), ’05-06 Arsenal (83, 89), ’05-06 Manchester United (83, 89), ’03-04 Chelsea (79, 95), ’03-04 Manchester City (41, 52), ’01-02 Manchester United (77, 83), ’02-03 Chelsea (67, 79), ’03-04 Arsenal (90, 83), ’00-01 Liverpool (69, 80)