Random thoughts before the ’12-13 season

Some of these are fresh thoughts, others are re-iterations of things I’ve written previously. Random variations mean I’d be extremely lucky to get everything on this list right but they seem like solid bets at this point.

Premiership

Man City are huge favourites to win the league in my book, they’ve neither added, nor lost, anyone crucial. It’s going to take a combination of bad luck for City and good luck, or the Tevez effect, for someone else for them to not be picking up the trophy come May.

Arsenal have quietly had a good summer. The transfer fee for van Persie was a hell of a lot of cash to get for a striker who’s had one sensational season out of eight, an impressively long list of injuries and who is likely to be on the decline well before that four year contract is over. It seems like a strange bet for United to take as far as I can see, especially given their glaring hole is at the centre of midfield. As I’ve said on twitter I’d put the over/under on the number of goals Rooney and RvP score for club and country at somewhere around 55.

Chelsea could go either way. Their possession numbers under Di Matteo were terrible last season and if they get a similar share of attacking possession this year then they’ll be out of the top four.

Liverpool were unlucky last year. Swansea are unlikely to perform better over the season. Stuart Downing will score goals. In essence I’m saying that Brendan Rogers has a great chance of winning the LMA manager of the season award.

If ever there was a summer that Mike Ashley should have cashed in on his squad it was this one. Unless you think Ba and Cisse are amongst the ten best strikers in Premiership history they’re due a huge amount of regression this time around.

QPR, Wigan and Villa are the three teams I think have the biggest potential to improve on their positions from last time around, United and Newcastle are the two I think have the biggest potential to slide.

All three of the newly promoted sides are going to have a hell of a job trying to stay up. There’s a pretty good chance at least two return to the Championship

Championship

Judging their ability to control the ball last season then dark horses for promotion are Nottingham Forest. Middlesborough should also fare pretty well. Blackpool may not be as good this time around.

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One thought on “Random thoughts before the ’12-13 season

  1. I followed your analysis (previews) of each team and I like the comparable’s concept. I agree with you on a lot of things (they seem obvious after this analysis) such as Newcastle will slide compared to last year + Ba and Cisse won’t perform as good as they did. I also think Swansea will perform worse, Liverpool will play better and Downing will score goals.

    TSR and PDO tell us a lot of things. But, I don’t agree with the thought of United declining. Yes, they have lower TSR in last few years but still, Ser Alex is a wizard. With the attacking potential they have now (even though as u said their midfield is more problematic), they have to score more goals (+ end up with higher TSR at end of season). They have great depth. I don’t believe Kagawa can play when Rooney and RvP play, plus they have Chicharito and Welbeck (Berbatov will probably leave I guess) and are quite good on the wings as well (Young, Nani, Valencia).

    Nonetheless, you did a marvelous job and thank you for the articles! Cheers

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