At the end of last season I wrote a post saying Chelsea had been lucky to win the two cups they did, and that they’d taken a significant step backwards since Roberto Di Matteo took over from AVB (link).
So did anything change between then and now? Here’s a simple plot of the TSR and PDO for Chelsea during the Premiership games Di Matteo was in charge of.
Nothing has really changed since the end of last season (game 11) and their cumulative (running) TSR had been between solidly between 0.510 and 0.540 all season. Combine some regression in the league from an unsustainable combination of sh% and sv% (they had a PDO of 1194 in the first 8 games of this season) with likely failure to progress from their Champions League group and it’s not hard to see why he was on thin ice to begin with.
One last thing, Chelsea’s TSR over the 23 league games RDM was in charge for was 0.535, suggesting they’d pick up ~37 points over 23 games. They actually scored 42, I’d argue that’s a pretty good estimate.