The effect of shot differential on gaining points

Two simple plots to show that, the better your shot differential, the more points you’ll pick up. First for individual games since ’00-01, split into home and away because there’s a marked discrepancy:

Screen Shot 2013-02-14 at 11.56.53 AM

The more that you outshoot an opponent, the more points you’ll pick up. The plot begins to plateau for the home team above +10 shots, partly because the majority of games are already being won, and then score effects playing a part.

Second the effect of total shot differential on points over a full season:

Screen Shot 2013-02-14 at 12.17.20 PM

Same story, smoother line.

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2 thoughts on “The effect of shot differential on gaining points

  1. Are the graphs worked out using all shots, or are blocked shots excluded?

    Reason I ask is because if Liverpool maintain their current shot difference (for all shots including blocked), then they’ll finish the season on +296, yet their points total won’t be anywhere near the high point shown.

    Thanks.

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