I did this last season and quite like the idea, so I’ll throw it up again for this time around.
As before the plot can be interpreted as such:
x-axis: PDO. Further right = more luck
y-axis: TSR. Higher = better team
Bubble size: Points. More points = bigger bubble
Bubble shade: Goal difference. Green = positive, red = negative. Lighter shade = further from 0
A few short summary points that might help with interpreting this:
Spurs were good (high) and unlucky (left). This translated into a decent amount of points (solid sized bubble) and a positive goal difference (lightish green).
United were less good (lower) and luckier (further right). They scored more points (bigger bubble), and had a higher positive goal difference (much lighter green).
At the end of last season I said “Liverpool couldn’t buy a goal this year (darker green). If I’m a manager looking for a new post this is the perfect time to take over at Liverpool, they’re almost guaranteed to score more points next time around, even if they aren’t as good.” Well they
weren’t as dominant were just as good (edit: h/t Will TGM) with the ball this time around but scored more points.
I also said “If there’s one thing this plot shows us it’s that (with the possible exception of the Manchester teams) there is literally no correlation between TSR and PDO.” Well City regressed all the way to the mean this time around, and there’s still no real pattern here.
Once more the top seven teams formed almost their own tier, but Southampton were excellent too. They’re a team to watch the next time around if they keep all of their players – it’s pretty unlikely that they’ll record a sub 930 PDO next time around.
Reading deservedly were relegated, and it’s somewhat just that Newcastle didn’t go down, they had an horrendous amount of bad luck. The rest were kind of a mess – we’d have had some knowledge about which teams were more likely than others to be relegated at the start of the season but at the end of the day it’s largely a PDO driven coin flip.
Looking at this, if I were an unemployed manager right now I’d have my fingers crossed that an opportunity arose at Newcastle, and I’d be steering as far clear from Stoke as possible.