Did your team improve in regress in ’12-13?

As with last year, I’m going to put up a couple of plots to compare the performance of teams in ’11-12 and ’12-13. Reading, Southampton, and West Ham are missing from the plots as they don’t have any data for ’11-12. They’ll be here next year though.

For both of these plots the tail of each arrow represents ’11-12 and the head of each arrow represents ’12-13. In each case I’ve done my best to put team labels at the head of each arrow, but further clarification can be found by using the legend. Click on the plot to load a larger version.

First up the traditional counting stats; points and goal difference.


There’s nothing surprising here, we could have guessed that Newcastle, QPR, and Man City were the clubs to drop the most points from season to season, and we already knew that points and goal difference were strongly correlated.

How about if we plot TSR against PDO?


An explanation of total shots ratio can be found here and here, for PDO see here and here.

This is a wonderful demonstration of the two tiers that existed in the Premiership at the start of the season, and ultimately was still plainly visible looking at the league table come the end of the season.

With average luck this year Spurs would have been challenging for a top two spot.

Neither Arsenal nor Chelsea really improved but but a big swing of luck, and both improved their point totals as a result.

The biggest thing to take away from that plot is Newcastle. The last two seasons they’ve demonstrated admirably how well a slightly better than average team will finish in the table if you give them a ton of good luck one season and even more bad luck the next. They’re actually a pretty solid side, and if they’re as good next season as they were this time around they’re unlikely to be in the same spot in the table.

And, as seen last season, the bottom of the table consists of a largish group of average to poor teams, any one of which I strongly believe could be a top seven side due to some good luck or be relegated due to bad luck.

2 thoughts on “Did your team improve in regress in ’12-13?

  1. Pingback: What the Premier League looks like | 5 Added Minutes

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