A special thanks to Dan Kennett for the data to make this post possible
Almost a carbon copy of my earlier post about sh%/sv% from outside the box. Using the same four seasons worth of data, (n=68 non-relegated teams) providing me with 51 pairs of back-to-back Premiership seasons. This time I’ve taken all shots from inside the box, as I don’t have the number of shots from inside the box that were on target, looked at the goals that resulted from them (excluding penalties), and calculated the ‘inside the box’ sh% and sv% for each team season. So what does a plot of ‘inside the box sh% in year 1’ vs ‘inside the box sh% in year 2’ (the following season) look like?
Rather than the complete lottery of shooting from outside the box, teams can sustain a decent proportion of their sh% from shots taken inside the box, the exact division here is 37% skill and 63% luck over the course of a Premiership season. To me that’s interesting, and I would find it interesting to find out whether this is a skill in sh% inside the box is a skill amongst strikers (given that they’re the most likely players to take shots inside the box), or whether some teams have a skill in getting the ball to more dangerous areas of the box.
So what if we do the same, but look at a teams sv% for shots taken from inside the box?
Interestingly, given that sv% from outside the box is 23% talent driven over the course of a Premiership season, sv% from inside the box is almost identical at 24% talent driven (and 76% luck driven) over the same tie span. Put in an elementary manner it seems keepers/defensive systems are roughly approximately good at suppressing the sh% of their opponents regardless of the shot location.