90 down, 290 to go – team summaries

Alphabetically summaries by team that are paired with the data dump from earlier.

Arsenal
Have faced the third easiest opposition of any Premiership team and haven’t exactly thrived. Even their raw TSR is way down on last season, although that could be a product of playing a lot of time in the lead. One of 6 teams that currently have a PDO >1100, that’ll likely regress, and against the better teams they have to face in the near future it may not be a pretty winter for the Gunners.

Aston Villa
A respectable 10 points through 9 games despite facing the toughest opposition so far this season and posting an average PDO. It wouldn’t be unprecedented if they were to go down, but it’s very unlikely.

Cardiff
Relegation candidate #1. Their TSR is horrible, and they’ve faced league average opposition. They’ve scored a point per game despite having the highest PDO in the league. It’s a dangerous combination that could get ugly quickly.

Chelsea
Title contenders #1. They’re up there with Spurs for the best TSR/qualcompTSR in the league, and already effectively two points up on Spurs. They’ve faced relatively easy opposition to this point, and have a high PDO, but they’re excellent at controlling the ball in the attacking third – and that’s far more important than their (likely) unsustainable sh%.

Crystal Palace
Relegation candidate #2. Their underlying numbers aren’t good but they aren’t terrible. The problem for Palace is that they’re going to have to overhaul three teams, some of which they’re already 5-6 points behind. Their sv% will likely regress positively, but two wins is a lot when you’re at the wrong end of the table.

Everton
Martinez pretty much picked up where Moyes left off. They’re unlikely to make the top four, but top 8 would be another damn good season.

Fulham
Relegation candidate #3. Fulham have been historically terrible – only 7 teams in the past 12 seasons have had a 9 game stretch where they had a TSR of 0.300 or lower. Fulham have done that against the easiest set of opponents of any Premiership team this season.. Amazing.

Hull
Relegation candidate #4. Terrible underlying numbers against league average opposition. They do have points in the bag but I suspect they’ll be dragged back.

Liverpool
It seems strange to say given their fast start to the season but they appear to have taken a step back compared to last time around. They’ve faced pretty good opposition and I assume at least part of the drop in TSR is the result of playing more time in the lead (I don’t know this is true for a fact) but there are some warnings signs. For example, Suarez/Sturridge have combined for 14 goals in 13 appearances – the goals may continue to come from elsewhere but that simply won’t continue. They’re probably an outside shot for a top four place.

Man City
Title contenders #2. Solid underlying numbers against league average opposition. Problems at the back have been covered by a high sh% at the other end of the pitch. Assuming the problems at the back are resolved they’ll be there or there-abouts come the end of the season.

As an aside I suspect that goalkeeper errors are pretty random, and just as likely to effect City as any other team during the remainder of the season, but when a couple occur together they tend to be magnified – especially when one of them hands three points to a title contender.

Man United
Per TSR United are pretty much what they were last season. They’ve faced good opposition, and aren’t all that far out of the top four. The easier opposition they have coming up will lift their TSR, and they’ll likely climb the table too, which will provide a nice narrative for the media. Whether they can overcome the five point lead they’ve given to the top four, as well as Man City, remains to be seen, but they should get close.

Newcastle
They’ve faced the easiest opposition in the league and been solid. They don’t have the points their play deserves but their PDO will regress and they should be fine.

Norwich
Below average against average opposition – a poor mans version of Newcastle really. A poor PDO has left them in the bottom three, but I’m confident there are at least three teams who’ll be below them come the end of the season.

Southampton
Surprise package. Their lofty league position is part merit, part facing easy opponents, part saving shots at an unsustainable rate, but they do appear to have jumped into the second tier of teams that trails Chelsea/City/Spurs in terms of controlling the ball in the attacking areas of the pitch. They may surprise and sneak a place in the Europa league.

Stoke
Relegation candidate #5. A change of manager, accompanied by a change of style, but they’ve still scored the fewest goals in the league, and have faced relatively easy opposition thus far. TSR suggests they’re the least likely of the relegation candidates to go down, but they’re certainly in the mix.

Sunderland
Relegation candidate #6. The win on Sunday certainly helped. 4-5 points is still a lot to make up though. And their underlying numbers aren’t great against league average opposition. But their sv% is going to regress upwards significantly and maybe that’ll be enough. It’s tight.

Swansea
League average against tough opposition. They’ll be fine but are unlikely to challenge the top eight.

Tottenham
Title contender #3. Once more AVB has put a team on the pitch that can dominate the shots battle but has a cripplingly bad sh%. Judging by what I’ve read from Colin Trainor on twitter I think the shots Andros Towndsend takes from outside the box are seriously elevating Spurs’ TSR. In any case they’re only one point behind Chelsea – and that’s the team I think are the title pace-setters right now. When Spurs’ sh% picks up they’ll be even more dangerous.

West Brom
Average TSR. Average quality of opposition. Average sh%. Average sv%. Will probably be fine.

West Ham
Below average against good opposition. Their elevated PDO has helped them tread water so far. It wouldn’t take much to drag them into trouble but they’ll likely be ok.

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2 thoughts on “90 down, 290 to go – team summaries

  1. Do you think that using SoT statistics rather than TSR would be better? Spurs shoot a lot, but some of the shots taken are of such low quality that they have an infinitesimal chance of actually going in. Is there a way you could work Sh% into your analysis (both statistical and subjective)?

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