The relationship between TSR and points over 9 games

I’ve set up a cool new sheet that lets me pull data like this out pretty easily. I’ve beaten to death the fact that TSR and points are related (see here and here), and that TSR stabilises relatively early over the course of a season, so I’m just going to post the methodology and the table and if anyone has comments then feel free to leave them below.

Methodology: I’ve taken all of the nine games spans played by a game over the course of a season, where games 1-9 are span 1, games 2-10 are span 2 etc.. This gives 30 ‘spans’ per team season. I’ve repeated that for each team for the ’00-01 – ’11-12 seasons (the ’12-13 season has yet to be incorporated), giving 240 team seasons, or 7,200 spans in total. Then I’ve split the sample into 18 roughly equally sized buckets based on the TSR recorded by the team in each of those spans, and seen how many points are recorded in each case.

Screen Shot 2013-10-29 at 5.47.49 PM

It’s neat to see TSR manifest itself as useful over a relatively short span of games.


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