It’s something I’ll come back to later but I have more than a suspicion that the vast majority of managerial sackings coincide with a teams PDO (see here for a definition and here for why I say it’s luck based) falling off a cliff – something that a manager has minimal-to-no control over.
In fact, I’ve shown this to be the case for the last two Liverpool managers to lose their jobs.
In that respect Martin Jol is kind of an outlier:
Really we could say that the early season spike in Fulham’s PDO kept Jol his job as long as it did, and the sacking has been overdue for a while.
It’s worth pointing out that when Jol inherited the team they were posting solid mid-table numbers. As expected their gradual drop from that hasn’t been due to the randomness of PDO – but the skill driven, repeatable TSR. They were posting the numbers of a lower mid-table side two thirds of the way through last season, and things have simply disintegrated since then. As of his sacking they were a historically terrible team. Looking at the way Fulham’s TSR was trending it would have been amazing to watch the next ten games to see where it had gone. It’s probably best for Fulham fans that it didn’t though.