Which metrics are the most repeatable between the first 15 and final 23 games of the season?

I’ve previously run this looking at which metrics after 9 games do the best job of predicting a given teams performance over the remainder of the season. At that point shots were far and away the best predictor. Now that we’re deeper into the season and we know more about each team in the league lets run this again and see how things have changed.

As the table contains only acronyms here’s a quick jargon buster

TS = Total shots
ST = Shots on target
G = Goals

R = ratio
D = difference
F = for
A = against

Sh% = shooting percentage (goals/shots on target for)
Sv% = save percentage (saves/shots on target against)
PDO = 1000*(Sh% + Sv%)

Screen Shot 2013-12-11 at 12.00.55 PM

So things remain largely unchanged. Shots tell you more about the succeeding 23 games than shots on target, which in turn are more informative than goals (though this could have been inferred from my previous work).

Attacking metrics remain more repeatable than defensive ones, and the points scored by a given team are pretty randomly distributed throughout a season.

Secondly, are the numbers above reflected well when we look at how well a given metric over the first 15 games does at predicting the points a team will score over the succeeding 23 games?

Screen Shot 2013-12-11 at 12.01.02 PM

The order at the top looks similar – TSR and STR rule the day, although goals are much closer this time around. The luck driven metrics remain (unsurprisingly) terrible predictors.

In short, if you want the best indicator out of this group as to how well a team will do over the remainder of this Premiership season then you should be looking at the proportion of shots (or shots on target if total shots aren’t available) taken by it to this point.

To see how the Premiership teams stack up by a few different metrics, including TSR that has been adjusted to take the strength of a teams opponents into account, then see here.


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