The two halves of Southampton’s season

Southampton’s rate of point scoring has dropped off somewhat – they’ve recorded just six points in their past eight games. Here’s a quick table outlining their underlying numbers in their first nine and last eight games played thus far in ’13-14:

Screen Shot 2013-12-23 at 11.49.56 PM

Their TSR has dropped off somewhat, but that’s likely a product of scheduling – they faced below average teams (with an average TSR of 0.474) in their first nine games and above average ones (with an average TSR of 0.533) in their last eight. TSR isn’t really the culprit here – it’s much more due to the fact that their save percentage has collapsed – something that’s pretty remarkable to look at in graph form:

soton tsr sv%

The good news for Saints fans? Save percentage is largely luck driven – and, just as the 89% posted through the first nine games wasn’t an accurate reflection of the teams true talent, the 50% sv% posted over the last eight games likely isn’t either. It’ll regress back towards the league average of 70% and they’ll start picking up points at a higher rate than they have been recently, albeit probably not as fast as they did at the beginning of the season.


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