In the past couple of months I’ve posted three times on which metrics are the most repeatable over the remainder of the season, as well as how predictive they are of the number of points a given team will score going forward. Those posts came after 9, 14, and 15 games had been played in the Premiership, and at each point shots were far and away the most useful metric. Now that we’re deeper into the season and we know more about each team in the league lets run this again and see how things have changed.
As the table contains only acronyms here’s a quick jargon buster
TS = Total shots
ST = Shots on target
G = Goals
R = ratio
D = difference
F = for
A = against
Sh% = shooting percentage (goals/shots on target for)
Sv% = save percentage (saves/shots on target against)
PDO = 1000*(Sh% + Sv%)
Attacking metrics remain more repeatable than defensive ones, and the points scored by a given team are pretty randomly distributed throughout a season. TSR remains staggeringly consistent over the course of a season, whilst PDO is largely luck driven.
Secondly, are the numbers above reflected well when we look at how well a given metric over the first 19 games does at predicting the points a team will score over the succeeding 19 games?
The order at the top looks similar – TSR and STR rule the day, although goals are much closer this time around. The luck driven metrics remain (unsurprisingly) terrible predictors.
In short, if you want the best indicator out of this group as to how well a team will do over the remainder of this Premiership season then you should be looking pretty interchangeably at the proportion of shots or shots on target its taken in its matches to this point.
To see how the Premiership teams stack up by a few different metrics, including TSR that has been adjusted to take the strength of a teams opponents into account, then see here.