A quick and dirty estimate of the points that’ll be scored by the teams finishing 1st, 4th, and 17th in the Premiership this season

The excellent Michael Caley posted this yesterday, with the points that his model predicts to be scored by the teams finishing 1st, 4th, and 17th in the Premiership. It’s something I’d been playing with a little in the last week and after 20 games I put snippets like this on twitter:

Basically, after 20 games the team in 17th place was 0.7 points behind the average total for the 17th placed team after 20 games. Pro rate that across a 38 game season and you have a delta of 1.3 points. Given that the average 17th placed team scores 38.2 points this season we could thus use this crude method to estimate after 20 games that the 17th placed team this year will score 36.9 points.

Why is this method crude? Well it takes no account of the distribution of points amongst other teams in the league – and this season that distribution is rather abnormal – as shown by the ever excellent Mark Taylor.

However, I feel like it’s probably good enough to get us in the right ballpark, and the table below shows the method to predict the number of points that will be scored by the teams finishing 1st, 4th, and 17th in the Premiership this year:

Screen Shot 2014-01-15 at 12.22.25 AM

Compared to Michael’s numbers of 85, 74, and 35 I’m pretty confident this method is putting us in the correct range.

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