220 down, 160 to – the race for 1st/4th/17th

In a recent post I presented a pretty crude methodology for determining the number of points required to finish 1st/4th/17th in the league based on the number of points the team in each of those positions has after a given number of games – the methodology is given in more detail there. Here I’m just going to present the relevant tables:

Screen Shot 2014-01-20 at 5.36.42 PM

For reference – last week these numbers were 86/75/36 – things have got slightly easier at the bottom but tougher at the top. What does that mean for the Premiership teams and the number of points they must score in order to hit the projected point totals?

Screen Shot 2014-01-20 at 5.45.47 PM

We’re down to just six teams that can reach the 87 points projected for 1st place – as United’s loss to Chelsea means they will max out at 85 points. Nine teams could still reach the 75 points projected for fourth but realistically it’s a stretch to see anyone below Everton making it.

The bottom of the table is incredibly tight – I tend to think Hull and Norwich are probably safe because a) they’d only need 12 points over the rest of the season to reach 35 and b) there’s a lot of teams between them and the drop zone. The rest is a mess though – and it only takes one team to collapse through bad play or tough luck for the points scoring to dry up.

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