I know Newcastle have had poor results recently so I thought I’d take a cursory look at their underlying numbers during the seven game span. What I found is pretty staggering. Here’s a split of the season:
The metric there with the largest skill component is TSR (see here for more information), and that hasn’t really changed much.
What has changed? Well the more luck based metrics, shooting and save percentage (goals/shots on target), which have been poor all season, have simply fallen off a cliff in the past 7 games. A PDO (Sh% + Sv%) of 580 is astoundingly low – Newcastle just haven’t had a break go their way at all over the period.
To give a sense of how low this number is I took the worst Premiership team I have on record – Derby in ’07-08 – and looked at their PDO over the 32 7 game spans they had during that wretched season (i.e., games 1-7 are span 1, games 2-8 are span 2, etc.). Their lowest PDO over a 7 game span? 684, which would have been worth about 3 goals to Newcastle over the past 7 games.
I’m not quite in a position to quickly pull the 7 game PDOs for all of the teams I have on record, but I’d be amazed if Newcastle’s wasn’t solidly in the lowest 1%. That’s something to bare in mind if Newcastle get a result against Arsenal today and the commentators attribute it to the presence of Pardew.