On why calling teams ‘draw specialists’ is very likely a misnomer

As per yesterday, I don’t really feel like writing a long post but I thought this was worth sharing. I’m using the ’00-01 – ’13-14 Premiership seasons for this post. First up draws ‘this year’ plotted against draws ‘next year’. (For an explanation of the this year/next year terminology see here)

drawstyvny

There’s essentially no correlation there – in essence no teams repeatably achieve more or fewer draws than the Premiership average.

Secondly let’s split a teams home and away games in a given season, and see if there’s a correlation there.

dhtyvdaty

Again there’s essentially nothing.

Take away message from this post: if a team draws a ton of games early in the season don’t read too much into it – it’s likely randomness and our best guess as to the number of draws they’ll get in the future is the league average number (9.8 per 38 games). And if anyone tells you there’s such a thing as a team that are ‘draw specialists’ they’re unlikely to be basing it on facts.

Finally – three teams have drawn 17(!) games in a season. NUFC in ’03-04, AVFC in ’06-07, and AVFC in ’11-12. in the season prior to and immediately after those three, the teams averaged 11 draws, a mere one more than league average

Footnote: Unsurprisingly there’s also essentially no correlation between home draws this year and home draws next year, nor between away draws this year and away draws next year.

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