For predictions from previous seasons see the following links: 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14
For analysis of predictions in prior seasons see here: 2011-12, 2012-13, 2013-14
These predictions are based on Team Ratings – the methodology of which can be found here
Finally for pre-season predictions of the points scored by the teams in the next four tiers of English football see here
Per the model, here’s the probability that a given team will win or finish in the Champions League places:
And finally, per the model, the probability that a given team will be relegated:
James, as a football fan (Liverpool FC) with no statistical background, I find your TSR rating interesting, but I have to question any method that gives Southampton a cat in hells chance of making the Champions League, I’d be interested in you analysing that outlier in more detail.
There’s nothing to analyse – it’s a dumb model that knows nothing about transfers or other personnel changes. Take it for what it’s worth.